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What if they
vote the 'wrong' way?
The democracy movement is grappling with
a serious problem. Many of the countries it
wants to have freedom of choice clearly
support parties that don't like the West.
ISTANBUL
-- An uncomfortable silence fell over the
packed boardroom as the Islamist began to
preach to the Westerners about democracy.
"You have to
let people make their own choices, instead
of trying to push an agenda," he said, his
voice an angry shout, as his fellow
delegates at a democracy-promotion summit in
Turkey's largest city squirmed in their
seats. "Let's all agree to say no to
dictators, and then let's mobilize the
voters and let them choose who they want,
whether it's liberals or Islam."
The wiry,
neatly groomed man doing the shouting was
Lahcen Daoudi, a leading member of Morocco's
Justice and Development Party, an Islamic
movement expected to do well in that
country's parliamentary elections next year.
What he wanted to know was, if his party won
fair and square, would the West accept them?
Or would it face the same ostracism as Hamas,
which won the recent Palestinian elections
only to see aid and contacts cut by Canada
and the United States?
"Am I
supposed to wait for a liberal to authorize
me to enter politics?" the former university
lecturer fumed later after a heated argument
with secular figures from across the Middle
East and North Africa. "They are not more
democratic than me."
Nodding in
agreement with everything Mr. Daoudi said
was Sheik Ali Salman, the head of Bahrain's
National Islamic Society, which is expected
to win the September elections in that Gulf
kingdom.
The
Westernized liberals and their American
allies, who had called so long for free
elections and an end to the tyranny of the
region's long-ruling dictators and monarchs,
gritted their teeth in frustration through
the debate as the two Islamists grabbed the
moral high ground by flinging basic
democratic principles in their faces.
After the
attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the White House
decided that democratizing the Middle East
was the way to ultimately win the "war on
terrorism" it declared in the aftermath.
After decades of backing Middle Eastern
dictators out of convenience, America set
out to use its leverage to force the tyrants
to open their societies. Free elections and
free media, the assumption went, would
create an environment in which young people
would look to America as an inspiration,
rather than a hated enemy.
Among the
400-plus delegates who gathered in Istanbul
this past week for a meeting of the World
Movement for Democracy were many of the
people charged with making that happen, as
well as some who, if all had gone according
to plan, would be at the vanguard of the
next generation of Middle Eastern leaders.
The World Movement is collection of
democrats and democracy-promotion groups,
most of them affiliated with or sponsored by
the National Endowment for Democracy, or
NED, the main democracy-promotion agency of
the U.S. government.
If the same
meeting had been held a year ago, Mr. Daoudi
and Sheik Salman probably would have been
doing the listening instead of the talking.
Back then, Iraqis had just astonished the
world by holding a reasonably successful
election, people power on the streets of
Beirut had forced the Syrian army to
withdraw from Lebanon after a 29-year stay
and a wave of unprecedented protests was
shaking the foundations of Hosni Mubarak's
rule in Egypt.
There was
excited chatter among the region's liberal
elites that maybe, just maybe, President
George W. Bush had set something positive in
motion when he sent the U.S. Army into Iraq.
In the wake of the Lebanese uprising, some
speculated that the Middle East could see a
series of peaceful revolutions like the ones
that swept through several former Soviet
states in recent years.
In his 2004
State of the Union speech, Mr. Bush
announced he was doubling the NED's annual
budget to $80-million (U.S.), and he
mandated that the extra $40-million be spent
entirely in the Middle East. He said the
money would be used to promote "free
elections, free markets, free press and free
labour unions" in the region, establishing a
"democratic peace" somewhere along the way.
But over the
past 12 months, awkward reality set in. In a
region where America's occupation of Iraq,
as well as its unflinching support of
Israel, is widely seen as part of a war on
Islam, the angry and humiliated masses
rallied around their faith. When given the
chance to choose their leaders, they voted
for Islamists whose dedication to
Western-style liberal democracy was
questionable at best. And the West, after
years of calling for more democracy in the
Muslim world, was forced to admit that it
doesn't like whom the people are choosing to
lead them.
While the
ballot-box success of Shia clerics in Iraq
was predicted, and the electoral gains of
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt were seen as tolerable,
the surprise win of Hamas -- seen in Ottawa
and Washington as a terrorist group -- in
January's Palestinian vote has sent the
democracy-builders back to the drafting
table. Among their financial backers in
Washington, it has reignited debate about
whether malleable kings and dictators aren't
preferable, after all, to potentially
hostile Islamists.
"People are
arguing again that if you open everything
up, you open it up to non-democratic groups.
So better [Pakistan's military ruler Pervez]
Musharraf, better Fatah [the secular
Palestinian party accused of corruption that
lost the election to Hamas], better Mubarak
in Egypt than the alternative. Even if that
leads to non-democratic behaviour," said Les
Campbell, a Winnipeg native who heads the
Middle East department of the National
Democratic Institute (NDI), a grant-giving
organization funded by the NED.
He said that
in Iraq, where the lines between political
parties and militias have become
increasingly blurry, the Bush administration
has all but given up on trying to build a
stable democracy, and is scaling back its
democracy-promotion efforts.
The NDI has spent the past dozen years
working on democracy-building in the
Palestinian Territories, only to see the
fruit of that work -- the freest elections
to date -- result in Hamas's victory. While
the group has no contacts with Hamas, Mr.
Campbell and other advisers met with senior
Fatah members in Istanbul this week to plot
a comeback strategy.
Even many
Arab liberals say they are just as
disillusioned as the Islamists by the hard
line Canada and the United States have taken
toward Hamas, which they say comes across as
hypocritical in the region and may derail
the whole project of trying to democratize
the Middle East and North Africa.
"Does democracy fail if the people who win
are not people we like?" said Daoud Kuttab,
a prominent Palestinian journalist. "The
U.S. attempt to try and teach and sell
democracy got a huge blow from the U.S.
attitude towards Hamas. It will take years
to repair the damage.
"You have a
U.S. government that's co-operating, allying
itself with Arab dictatorial regimes and
ignoring a truly elected government. It's
not just that they don't talk to Hamas; it's
that they do talk to the kings and the
dictators."
But Rola Dashti, an activist who led the
struggle that resulted last year in Kuwaiti
women getting the right to vote, has more
sympathy for the Canadian and American
stance. While she agrees that it's
hypocritical to deny Islamists the right to
contest and win elections, she simply
doesn't trust them to protect the rights she
fought so hard to attain.
"As a woman
activist in the Middle East, I get
concerned. Where these parties are in power,
we see more repression of women and
deterioration in their standard of living.
[The Islamists] try to pretend they're
genuine and embrace democratic values, but
do they really walk the walk?"
Her big fear, she said, was that an election
won by Islamists might not be followed by
another one in four years. "I would respect
the results. But we would have to make sure
that it's not a one-time vote."
The Globe
and Mail; Saturday, April 8, 2006
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