The war after the Cold War
THE NEW COLD WAR
Revolutions, Rigged Elections and
Pipeline Politics in the Former Soviet Union
By Mark MacKinnon
Random House Canada,
313 pages, $34.95
Reviewed by JULIET JOHNSON
The death of former Russian president
Boris Yeltsin on April 23 firmly closed an
all-too-brief chapter in contemporary
Russian history, one in which Russia and the
West saw themselves as partners rather than
adversaries. Today, the two sides'
diametrically opposing views on Yeltsin's
rule in the 1990s reflect a far more hostile
climate. Westerners laud Yeltsin for helping
to end the Cold War peacefully and for
introducing free markets and democracy to
Russia. Most Russians, in contrast, regard
Yeltsin as a bumbling drunk who allowed the
West to take advantage of Russia by
expanding NATO and forcing Russia to adopt
damaging liberal economic policies.
Current Russian President Vladimir
Putin's increasing assertiveness on the
world stage and re-centralization of
political and economic power reflect this
popular backlash against all that Yeltsin
and his era stood for. Mark MacKinnon's
timely book, The New Cold War, chronicles
the resulting clash between Russia and the
West under the Putin regime, focusing on the
"coloured revolutions" in the post-Communist
region.
Although pundits have described
everything from the war on terror to climate
change to relations between India and
Pakistan as "the new cold war," MacKinnon --
The Globe and Mail's former Moscow
correspondent, now posted to Jerusalem --
joins the growing ranks of those who use the
phrase with a clear eye toward its original
meaning.
In MacKinnon's view, the post-communist
world has become the latest battleground in
a struggle for international influence
between the West (led by the United States)
and Russia, who vie for supremacy in East
Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The
two sides' desire for control over energy
resources and pipeline transit routes has
fuelled this conflict.
In particular, MacKinnon argues that
regime changes in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in
2003, Ukraine in 2004 and Kyrgyzstan in 2005
represented triumphs of Western efforts to
promote friendly governments over Russian
efforts to keep them in their own political
and economic sphere of influence. In these
countries, political opposition groups used
methods such as exit polling, parallel vote
counts and massive mobilizations and
protests to challenge blatant attempts by
unpopular incumbent leaderships to rig
election outcomes in their own favour. In
each case, the protesters first forced the
regimes to recognize the fraud, and then the
countries' leaders lost power.
Throughout the narrative, MacKinnon
stresses the central role that the West
played in these "coloured revolutions." He
draws on a wide range of interviews and
personal observations to trace the
involvement of Western organizations in
building and promoting the opposition
movements that successfully challenged the
regimes in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine and
Kyrgyzstan. He also devotes a few
enlightening chapters to Russian efforts to
counter their influence and promote Putin's
vision of "managed democracies," friendly to
Russia, instead.
MacKinnon focuses his analysis most
closely on two organizations heavily
involved in supporting democracy-promotion
activities in the region: the U.S. National
Endowment for Democracy (NED) and George
Soros's Open Society Institute (OSI). The
NED, a relatively small,
U.S.-government-funded agency, provides
grants to non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) around the world. Through its grants,
NED supports activities such as election
monitoring, alternative media and training
local political and NGO leaders.
Soros, the Hungarian-born U.S.
billionaire, created his Open Society
Institute to encourage similar activities
aimed at developing democratic civil
societies in the post-communist world.
Although Soros is a private citizen and a
bitter critic of the Bush administration,
MacKinnon emphasizes that OSI and the U.S.
government often had similar goals and
worked toward similar political ends in the
region.
MacKinnon not only usefully documents the
extensive Western democracy-promotion
projects, but takes the further analytical
step of giving them credit for the coloured
revolutions. In his view, Western
governments, most especially the Bush
administration, orchestrated these events.
As he puts it, student opposition leaders in
these countries "understand ... that they
were part of a machine that topples
governments that run afoul of Washington."
In this judgment, MacKinnon is at odds
with most academic research on the coloured
revolutions, which finds that foreign actors
played at best a supporting role. When the
conditions are right, outside assistance can
help at the margins to demonstrate that
election results were falsified, to
encourage opposition forces to coalesce
around a single candidate, or to support
media and civil society efforts to get the
word out more widely.
But scholars stress that without
fraudulent elections, a genuinely unpopular
leader, a semi-authoritarian (rather than
fully repressive) government and a
legitimate, home-grown political opposition,
no amount of external involvement can spark
such mass mobilizations.
A case in point is Belarus, where foreign
support for democratic opposition movements
has failed to threaten Aleksandr
Lukashenko's hold on power. As MacKinnon
points out, Lukashenko's real popularity and
willingness to repress opposition figures
brutally meant that even initiatives funded
by the U.S. government's $23-million Belarus
Democracy Act, of 2004, could not affect the
regime's stability.
MacKinnon also stretches too far at times
to demonstrate that the United States plays
a central, implicitly sinister, role in
every nook and cranny of the region. For
instance, he argues that the U.S. government
initiated the Georgian Rose Revolution and
the Kyrgyz Tulip Revolution simply because
these countries' leaders defied U.S.
strategic interests, even though Georgian
president Eduard Shevardnadze had been a
long-time U.S. ally and the Kyrgyz
opposition was more pro-Russian than ousted
president Askar Akaev.
Similarly, he simultaneously blames
democracy-promotion efforts for spurring
increased repression by fearful leaders in
Russia, Belarus and Central Asia, and
chastises the United States for not
promoting democracy more actively in
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Perhaps most strangely, he ends the book
with a quote from a Serbian activist in
Otpor, the student movement that led the
ouster of Slobodan Milosevic: "But maybe the
CIA did use us. Maybe it did." This is a
curious quote on which to conclude, since
nowhere else in the book does MacKinnon
claim CIA involvement in the coloured
revolutions.
Overall, however, The New Cold War
wonderfully documents the conflicting
interests and policies of Russia and the
West in an engaging, easy-to-read style,
joining a growing legion of fine books on
contemporary Russian-Western relations and
the struggle for influence in the
post-communist world.
Juliet Johnson teaches political science
at McGill University. She is the author of A
Fistful of Rubles: The Rise and Fall of the
Russian Banking System, and is finishing
Priests of Prosperity: The Transnational
Central Banking Community and Post-Communist
Transformation.
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